We will use remote sensing and GIS-based analysis to detect LULC changes, such as (changes in) landscape structure and diversity, to detect ecosystem condition, diversity, change and degradation, and to quantify landscape metrics.
We will establish a total of 3 field plot replicates of 100×100 m, for each forest degradation level and in each country, making a total of 12 field plots in each case study region. We will map vegetation, and trap rodents and mosquitoes.
We will assess on-site microbiological biodiversity at three different levels: i) in rodents, ii) in vectors, and iii) in the soil.
We will involve local communities affected by ecosystem degradation and disease emergence and who can play a central role in risk prevention and mitigation, addressing the human behaviour, social and cultural drivers of ecosystem degradation and disease emergence.
ZOE will build a synthetic understanding of the interlinkages between ecosystem degradation, associated biodiversity loss, and emergence of zoonotic diseases. We will develop scenarios of plausible land use change futures in the case study regions and beyond addressing ongoing deforestation and further expansion of agricultural and/or urban land in the context of climate change and globalization, to detect signals of change, which may have potential impacts on biodiversity changes and may result in new risk areas for the transmission of rodent- and vector-borne diseases in a near time horizon (until 2040).
Image credit: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Source: Leclere et al. (2020) Nature, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y